It is our belief that history repeats itself in the stock market because human nature and investor psychology don't change. Therefore, analyzing historical charts can be a helpful guide for interpreting current and future market trends.
Personally I pay close attention to the KLCI historical data and charts. A few years back, while many were forecasting the next stock market crash was in 2018 but I had a different view. I was comparing the relationship between the Malaysia stock market with the GDP growth rates and based on the figures (if history were to repeat itself) the next market crash (that will lead to recession) should not be 2018 but a much later date. I will not disclose the year here but to let yourself do the calculations yourself.
(Chart By Bursa Station: http://www.bursastation.com/?page=download)
The diagram above showed KLCI 1982 to present. The 2 circled represent some similarities despite it is 20 years apart.
- The bullish years are: the year ending with 1,4,7 (with + or -1 yr)
- The bearish years are: the year ending with 2,5,8 (with + or - 1 yr)
The above are just my personal opinion, there is no guarantee that it will occur as stated above. Nevertheless, it is no doubt very interesting to study the history in order to have a better understanding of how our stock market works.
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