Saturday, August 5, 2017

Technical Indicators For KLCI as at 4/8/2017

As at 4/8/2017 

Sector
20 Day MA
50 Day MA
100 Day MA
200 Day MA
Construction
Below 
Below
 Above
Above 
Consumer
Above
Above
Above 
 Above
Finance
Above
Above
Above 
Above 
Ind-Product
Above  
Above 
Above  
Above  
Industrial
Below 
Below 
Above 
Above  
Mining
Above 
Above 
Above  
Above  
Plantation
Below
Below
Below
Below
Properties
Below 
Below  
Below 
Above  
Technology
Above 
Above  
Above  
Above  
Trading/ Services
 Above 
Below 
Below  
Above  

Technical Indicator:

20 Day MA: Short term<1month div="">
50Day MA: Medium Term 1-3months
100Day MA: Medium Term 3-6months
200Day MA: Long Term > 6months

Sectors that have improved are:
1. Consumer:                 KLCI  above 20 Day and 50 Day MA
2. Finance:                     KLCI above 20 Day MA
3. Industrial Products: KLCI above 20Day and 50Day MA
4. Industrial:                 KLCI above 100 Day MA
5. Trading/Services:     KLCI above 20 Day MA


Sector/s that has/have deteriorated:
1. Properties: KLCI below 100 Day MA

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Technical Indicators For The Bursa Malaysia Sectors


As at 7/7/2017 

Sector
20 Day MA
50 Day MA
100 Day MA
200 Day MA
Construction
Below 
Below
 Above
Above 
Consumer
Below
Below
Above 
 Above
Finance
Below 
Above
Above 
Above 
Ind-Product
Below  
Below 
Above  
Above  
Industrial
Below 
Below 
Below  
Above  
Mining
Above 
Above 
Above  
Above  
Plantation
Below
Below
Below
Below
Properties
Below 
Below  
Above  
Above  
Technology
Above 
Above  
Above  
Above  
Trading/ Services
 Below 
Below 
Below  
Above  

Technical Indicator:

20 Day MA: Short term <1month div="">
50Day MA: Medium Term 1-3months
100Day MA: Medium Term 3-6months
200Day MA: Long Term > 6months

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Phillips Curve and The Central Banks

The recent market sell off followed by comments made by ECB Mario Draghi spooked investors worldwide. The market has misinterpreted his comments to be 'hawkish' rather then 'dovish'. The next day, markets went up again!  He did mentioned about being prudence, but at the same time he was also concern about the Euro zone inflation rate being less than 2%. (The ideal is 2% - 3%.)

Here comes the famous economic theory "Phillips Curve". Many economists think that it is not relevant in today's world but the US and ECB think the theory is still valid and they have been making economic decisions mainly on the unemployment rate and the inflation rate.

According to Phillips Curve theory, economic growth should come with rising inflation and falling unemployment rate as shown in the diagram below.


Hence, the US Fed Yellen and ECB Draghi have been tracking these 2 parameters closely to decide whether or not to raise interest rates. What we see in the US and the Euro zone are falling unemployment rate, but at the same time, the inflation rates have been low too due to the supply side factors such as low commodities prices, cheaper raw material, and rising productivity due to technology. Hence, the low inflation rate may cause the US Fed and the ECB to defer raising the interest rate to normalisation. The current interest rate for the US and the Euro zone are 1.25% and 0% respectively, this leaves little room for the monetary policy makers to play should there be another financial crisis. 

How about fiscal policy? Since 2008, the whole world have been pumping their economies with billions and trillions worth of constructions and government spending. For example, the government debt to GDP ratio for Japan was 250% while the US was 106% according to Trading Economics. 



In terms of Fiscal and monetary policies, there just aren't enough rooms to maneuver.

Many people are anticipating another financial crisis soon as we have seen one in 1974, 1985, 1997, 2008, if looking at this sequence, the next one could be in this decade?

Or may be not? I will be sharing on this topic on this Sunday July 2 2pm - 2:45pm at KLCC Convention Center POPULAR Bookfest Hall 5. Free full day workshop voucher to be given with the purchase of my new book. 




Saturday, May 27, 2017

The Guppy Multiple Moving Averages (GMMA)

The GMMA is a very useful technical indicator for long term investors. I am using this indicator together with the trend lines and simple moving averages for all my analysis on stocks. 

If you are not sure whether to hold a particular stocks and you need confirmation, GMMA is a good indicator to check whether the long term investors are still holding the stock by looking at the "green lines". For a long term bullish trend, the green lines have to be upward sloping, the lines must not compressed and the red lines (short term speculators) must be bouncing off from the green lines.






Monday, February 27, 2017

Trading in Your Own Style

I was listening to John Carter's interview (https://chatwithtraders.com/ep-069-john-carter/) and there was this line that struck me. He said, "As a trader you feel comfortable by being uncomfortable." 

Trading involves risk. It is this risk that makes people "uncomfortable".  I play close attention to my state of mind when trading, because I notice sometimes when I place a trade with a feeling of confidence, chances are that trade is likely to turn sour in the end. And when I was in doubt when placing that particular trade, it turned out fine! So each trade is based on my own calculation of probability of success given the risk scenario that I am projecting. In the end, "feeling comfortable by being uncomfortable" is what I am pursuing. And this is a great challenge to me because who would want to be constantly feeling uncomfortable in their mind? 

I believe each trader has his or her own unique personality that only he or she alone can determine what types of trading systems or styles that suit them. If you see other people become successful in trading, do not envy them, it would not be a good idea if you copy their trading systems, because the results will not be the same.

In addition, we have to acknowledge that the trading environment is dynamic, you need to be flexible to adapt to the trading environment. What has worked before may not necessarily work in the current market condition. Hence, the only way to overcome this is to keep on learning.