Friday, June 21, 2013

Correction Phase Continues

The US DJIA and S&P 500 had a critical move last night that finished both below their trendlines. This will be the first major correction since last year November if the DJIA and S&P 500 couldn't go back to their support within 3 days starting today. Below are the charts for the possible downside targets for the US markets:

Historical speaking, these kinds of major corrections happen once or twice a year in the US markets for the past 3 years. In 2011 had a 18-20% correction from top as the correction was overdued. The DJIA broke the 1 yr trendline in August due to debt ceiling crisis in the US, and it lasted for about 8 wks.

In 2012, there were twice, once in the mid-year May, the other end of the year November. Each correction is 9% from top and the duration was shorter than 2011.

Hence if 2013 experience like what 2012 did, most likely we shall see 2 corrections for the year with one in June, the next in November as well. The downside target for DJIA is 14,100 which is calculated from subtracting 9% from the recent peak in May. I see strong Gann support at 13,800 for the DJIA.

Similarly, for the S&P 500, downside target is 1530 (9% from recent peak) with a strong support at 1500.

For KLCI, most likely we will be supported by the long term trendline that started since March 2009 which is 1680.

As for STI, today we shall see the index testing the recent low at 3094, the immediate support is 3075, if this level is broken, the next support level will be 3000.

In short, it is very important we can identify whether this is a crisis where the stock markets undergo a major bear trend with multiple months or a healthy correction with 2-6wks of downtrends. For a crisis like the recent ones, we had the 1997 Asian Financial crisis, 2008 US Subprime Morgage crisis where wee saw rising interest rates, massive corporate failures and bank failures, and currency depreciations.

On the other hand, for a correction to take place, it will be preceded by news that erode investors confidence such as: possible Greek exit the eurozone, US debt ceiling limit, but not like the above crisis scenarios. This round, its the withdrawal of QE should the US economy improves further. Frankly speaking, I think what the US Fed is doing is on the right path as we do not want to see excessive money printing, which will give rise to a lot more problems in the future.

Finally, the above analysis is my own opinion, it is not for recommendation or advice. I'm just sharing my knowledge as I want to help people to see things in a more objective way, the more information you have, less uncertainty it is.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

KLCI Correction Phase

Here are some charts looking at how KLCI perform during the correction phase.
Usually I consider a valid correction phase as price violates both trendline and the 20 day MA. Hence from the chart below we see once these 2 lines are violated, the correction phase will last  9 - 47 trading days or 2 - 9 wks depending on how bearish it was.

From the findings:
2009 - no major correction as just emerged from major bear trend in 2008
2010 - 2 times
2011 - 2 times
2012 - 3 times
2013 - so far 1 time