Thursday, September 22, 2011

$400 billion to help the US economy?

The Federal Reserve said yesterday that it will shuffle $400 billion of its portfolio to try to drive down long-term interest rates and get the economy going. Is it going to work? I seriously doubt it!

The current economic situation is lack of confidence in the economy, in the government, and in the Euro debt crisis. Yields on U.S. government debt were already among the lowest on record, and investors drove them down further after the Fed announcement. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, an indicator for mortgages and other long-term loans, closed at 1.86 percent, down from 1.93 percent the day before and the lowest since at least 1962. The US interest rate is already low, by lowering further won't make much difference.

If you look at Japan as an example, you will know this is not going to work for the American.

Focus on the revenue

There are actually two sides of the equation here that most economists do not see, the revenue side and the spending side that can drive the economy. However, because people are too used to the Keynesian and Monetary theories that focus on the spending side, they have neglected the most important source that can boost the economy - the revenue!

And how to get more revenue for the government? Taxation!

The US has the most millionnaires and billionnaires in the world, and the US has the most number of technology companies in the world that are rich source of tax revenue for the government. Even if the US government does not want to tax the companies, how about selling government bonds to these cash rich companies?

The following is the top 10 cash rich companies in US:

1. Apple
Market Capitalization: $330 billion
Cash Hoard: $76.2 billion Source.
2. Microsoft
Market Capitalization: $201 billion
Cash Hoard: $63.7 billion Source.
3. Cisco
Market Capitalization: $83 billion
Cash Hoard: $38.92 billion Source.
4. Google
Market Capitalization: $158 billion
Cash Hoard: $35 billion Source.
5. Oracle
Market Capitalization: $125 billion
Cash Hoard: $28.82 billion Source.
6. Siemens
Market Capitalization: $85 billion
Cash Hoard: $13.42 billion Source.
7. IBM
Market Capitalization: $188 billion
Cash Hoard: $11.76 billion Source.
8. Samsung
Market Capitalization: $92 billion
Cash Hoard: $9.04 billion [slightly dated] Source.
9. Intel
Market Capitalization: $102 billion
Cash Hoard: $7.73 billion Source.
10. Amazon
Market Capitalization: $81 billion
Cash Hoard: $6.3 billion Source.

If we total all those figures up, and this is what they sum to:

Total Market Capitalization: $1.445 Trillion

Total Cash Hoard: $290.89 Billion

So if I'm in the Obama administration, I'll suggest him to get more money from its own people!

Happy investing,

Pauline Yong


Friday, September 9, 2011

Why Keynesian Model Doesn't Work for the U.S. Economy?

After the great depression, in 1936, John Maynard Keynes argued that should the government play a significant role to steer the economy out of recession through public spending, they would not have had a prolonged recession.

In Keynes' 1936 article, "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money", he argued that the solution to the Great Depression was to stimulate the economy through public spending such as government investment in infrastructure. Investment by government injects income, which results in more spending in the general economy, which in turn stimulates more production and investment involving still more income and spending and so forth. The initial stimulation starts a series of chain reactions, whose total increase in economic activity is a multiple of the original investment.


This is a wonderful concept and many politician applied this economic model through "stimulus packages" during the recent financial crisis, Barrack Obama for one is a firm believer who has trashed trillion of dollars into the US economy, Malaysia - RM60b, Australia - A$42b and many more. The results? These economies have a V-shaped recovery but looks like it's only temporary and many economists are projecting a double-dip recession. So what went wrong with this wonderful Keynesian model?

After Keynes passed away in 1946, Milton Friedman (Monetarist theory) criticized vigorously that Keynesian model did not work well post World War 2 and that Keynesian policy led the country into stagflation (high inflation and high unemployment), which they did during the early 1970's and further deteriorated in 1973 the oil crisis.


In 1942, during the World War 2, Keynes published an article, titled "How to Pay for the War", he suggested that the war effort should be largely financed by higher taxes and compoulsory savings, rather than deficit spending in order to avoid inflation. However, the deficit as a percentage of GDP was as high as 30% per year during that time under the hands of President Roosevelt which planted the seeds for the major economic problems the Americans are facing now.

People may have twisted Keynesian theory a little by saying it's not working but they did not understand that Keynes advocate prudent spending. What is not working is the lack of disciplinary action by the country leaders who are afraid of losing popular votes by taking the easy way out.

In any economic models, there are strengths and weaknesses. Personally, I'm the the follower for Keynesian model. Despite the fact that this model violates Adam Smith "invisible hands" theory which is essential for any capitalist economic system, but if we look around those successful economies, they actually have a stint in socialism!

Finally, in answering the question whether Keynesian model works for the US? Well, Warren Buffett has mentioned about tax raise, but I think maybe some forced savings like our EPF system maybe a good start for them.

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong




Saturday, September 3, 2011

Secular Bull Market for Gold

Secular bull market may lasts for decades. If you buy gold in 2001 and hold till 2011, the appreciation is 700% in 10 years! This is not much compared to the gold bubble in 1980. If you buy and hold gold from 1976 to 1980, your gain would be 850% as the gold price rose from $100 to 850 per oz within 4 years time. However, we must acknowledge that any market operates with bulls and bears. From the above gold chart, after the crash in 1980, the gold market was in a secular bear for 20 years!

What drives gold price? Besides the demand and supply, gold is a barometer for inflation, global currency devaluation or simply put, the public confidence of the state of the economy. In general, when people have lose confidence with their currencies due to over printing of money or inflation, paper money depreciates and many would turn to assets such as stocks, properties and of course gold and silver!

How far the gold price goes depends on people's expectations, politics, economic condition, wars and many factors. There are 2 groups of people here: the goldbugs or the gold lovers who believe that gold represents protection from economic and financial chaos, and political and financial conservatism and they feel secure to own some gold.

The other group is the opposite, they do not think gold is a good investment as they believe gold does not pay dividends, nor does it represent ownership in a company. It's value is strictly tied to what investors are currently willing to pay for it. As long as there are more goldbugs willing to pay for the price, the gold price will continue to rally until the price is so high that buyers are not willing to pay for the extraordinary price. Technically, you'll see the volume declining as the price rises at the top of the bubble and the gold price is deemed for a crash.

When will it be? Maybe next year, maybe 5 years later, nobody knows. However, if you see your friends who have never invested in anything but decided to buy gold suddenly, that's the sign! But for now, I know the sentiment about the gold is still bullish.

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong








Wednesday, August 24, 2011

The Bull Vs The Bear

In a bull market, the market ignores bad news. In a bear market, the market reacted on bad new, not-so bad news, all kinds of news! In March 2009, the beginning of a bull, people refered to any rallies as bear rallies. They were in a terrible bear trend and couldn't believe the bear was over, so when there were some rallies, they called it the bear rallies!

Now, I see similar reaction here in August 2011, we have enjoyed a superb bull run for over 2 years, and suddenly the sign of the fear struck and we are now wondering is this still a bull? Whever investors start to have this thought and as their thoughts get stronger and stronger, these thoughts will menifest through self-fufilling which weaken the bull and finally give way to the bear!

By human nature, we always find ourselves in the state of denial and thinking that we are still in the same old condition as before. But evidence showed that even if we are in the bear trend, we won't realise untill several months later when we see that the stock prices testing for year lows.

Investing in bull market is easy: buy low, sell high! But investing in the bear market requires more skills because in a bear trend, companies get smaller earnings per share with gloomy outlook, and technically most stock are trading below 200 days moving average, all these discourage you to buy in a bear market. One way to overcome this is to buy your favourite stocks (preferably blue chip stocks with good management) in stages. It is important to invest through stages because you never know when is the bottom, so as the prices go lower, you kept buying. The key here is to overcome your fear by having a system in place so that you act as a robot rahter than a human!

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong


Monday, August 15, 2011

Stock Crash

In the recent stock crash, he DJI had an unprecedented wild ride initiated on August 4th a crash of 512 points (4%)due to a downgrade of its long term debt by Standard and Poors. On August 8th, DJI shed another 635 points (5.5%) but on August 9th, DJI had a big jump of 430 points (4%), however, on August 10th DJI swung negatively by 562 (5%)points due to rumours that a French Bank might be in financial distress. As predicted, the next day a big swing to the positive side by adding 424 (4%)points.

In 6 trading days, 5 days had more than 400 points (or 4%) move! That was unprecedented and it definitely affected the stock markets around the world. Our KLCI had a sharp fall but compared to the regional markets, as usual, we dropped the least. But still, the damage was done to our stock market technically, as our KLCI is now trading below 200 day moving average, it could signify the beginning of a long term bear. By long term bear I mean 9 months - 1.5 yrs based on the past trends.

Currently, I can see an intense fight between the bull and the bear. Last week's event was a first sign of fear that the investors express it on the stock market after a 2 year bull run. Let's think objectively: (1) Have we seen any default yet by any of the U.S. or the European debt ridden countries? (2)The property market in Asia is looming but has it burst? (3) Interest rates around the world are considered low as we just recovered from a recession 2 years ago, so that's good for the stock markets, right? So what hasctriggered the crash on August 4th?

Some said it could be some political motive by the supporters of the Republican that they want to teach Obama a lesson by having a stock crash on his birthday. It's not uncommon to have this thought because the recent debt ceiling negotiations between the Democrats and the Republicans have exposed the weakness in the Obama's administration. Investors feel that Obama may not be able to handle well the current economic problems the Americans are facing, and that would hurt the U.S. economy which in turns affects the stock market negatively.

So the recent stock market crash has clearly send out a strong signal to the world that the investors do not have the confidence that the Obama administration can resolve its economic problems well, their historically high debt level may raise the risk of default by the U.S. government. Even without a default, the country is facing inflation problem and the depreciation of the US dollar may give havoc to the rest of the world.

For one, China would be in trouble since they are the largest holder of the American debt with more than US$1 trillion. And many central banks around the world will see their foreign reserves depreciate as the dollar depreciates.

In addition, the European countires like Greece, Spain, Portuggal and more seemed not committed in cutting their fiscal (government) spending, as they are afraid of losing the popular votes. So in the next 2 years, It won't be a surprise if I see defaults in governments in these countries.

So what to invest? I'm still saying the same old words: For short term investors, go ahead and take advantage of the market volatility, as for the long term investors stay away and wait patiently!

Happy investing!

Pauline Yong

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Financial Planning Q&A

Recently I wrote an article for a women's magazine - Citta Bella. Perhaps some of the questions addressed here are your concerns as well. Here's the article:

Q & A For Citta Bella

Case: 30-year old Single Office Lady

1. I have 20K, how do I invest my money?


According to your risk preference, you may invest in fixed deposit, shares or unit trust. Fixed deposit is the safest investment however it generates only 2-3% per year return. As for shares and unit trusts there is certain investment risk involved but the potential returns are much higher than the fixed deposit, in general the gains are usually around 7-12% per year.

For a 30 year old single office lady, you can tolerate much higher risk than those who are married with children and those who are nearing retirement age, hence I would advice a 25:75 asset allocation for you, which means you may put aside RM5000 (25%) in the fixed deposit and invest RM15,000 (75%)in blue chip stocks.

Asset allocation is how much money you put into different asset classes—the percentage of your assets that are in stocks, bonds, cash, real estate, and commodities. Believe it or not, the choices you make in this regard are the most important part of your investing. A good mix of asset allocation will enable you to achieve sustainable profits from the stock market over the long run.

I usually recommend people to invest in blue chip stocks as blue chip stocks are good investment, not only you can gain capital appreciation, every year you’ll receive attractive dividends from these companies. Some examples of the blue chip stocks are: Maybank, CIMB, Genting, and Public Bank. However, if you are not comfortable investing directly in the share market, you may choose to invest in unit trust from a reputable fund management company.


2. How much savings do I need? I’m a 30 yr old single OL (office lady).


Assuming your retirement age is 55 and you live until 75 years old, you should set aside minimum RM500 every month into your retirement fund preferably in stocks or unit trust which will give you RM1,500 every month during your 25 year retirement period.
After deciding how much we need in the future, now, let’s see how we can achieve our retirement goal. Many people have the wrong attitude towards savings, they will choose to pay their monthly expenses first, whatever the balance (if any) will then turn into their savings. Sometimes, they may have impulse buying on branded handbags or hand phones, and they will not hesitate to withdraw from their savings to purchase them.

The right attitude should be to pay into the retirement fund before any monthly expenses. In addition, you should try not to withdraw from the fund for any impulse buying. A good way to help you to achieve your retirement goal is to set up a unit trust regular saving plan with a reputable unit trust company with initial RM1000 investment, followed by auto-debit instruction from your bank account to invest RM300 monthly into an equity fund.

However, if you notice, I did not include the EPF into this retirement fund. The reason why I didn’t include is because most of us, before the retirement age, we have already used up at least one third for purchasing property, and the remaining upon retirement the money is usually used for children’s university expenses, hence, the remaining may not be significant. However, if you do have money left from the EPF that will be a bonus for you.


3. I love traveling to different parts of the world, but I’m afraid I might spend too much on trips and not saving enough for my retirement, what should I do?

As Malaysia is moving towards becoming a developed nation and our society is becoming more affluent, overseas trips has become part of our lifestyle. However, these trips are not cheap, they may cost up to about RM2000 to RM6000 per person. If we lose focus we may ended up spending too much and not saving enough for our retirement fund. My advice is that you need to be disciplined enough to set aside the required amount, say RM500 monthly for your retirement fund first, the remaining you may allocate according to your other needs such as your overseas trip. Hence, it is very important that we must have proper financial planning to safeguard our hard earn money so that our retirement goal can be achieved.


4. Medical cost is getting too expensive, is it advisable to get myself covered with insurance? What is the right amount for my insurance coverage?


Medical expenses are rising faster than the costs of any other service. They are climbing at rates that very much exceeding the inflation rate. On top of that, with the hectic lifestyle and bad eating habits, the chances of contracting terminal illness have increased tremendously in the recent years. Hence it is very important that everyone should buy a medical insurance for protection.

How much medical coverage is enough depends on the following factors: your ability to pay the premiums, your health condition, your family history of terminal illness, your debt obligations and your family commitments and other personal objectives such as whether you need some investment component in it.

In general, for a 30 year old woman with good health condition would need minimum RM200,000 for a lifetime medical coverage. However, if budget allows, you may consider increase your coverage through other add-on benefits such as hospitalization, disability benefits, income benefits, and regular saving feature in it.


5. I am still young, do I need to write a Will?

It’s never too young to write your Will. As soon as you have turned 18 years old, you may start to write your Will. What is a Will? A Will is an important legal document that contains your instructions and wishes for distributing your property and assets after you die. This document contains the names of the people you want to benefit, your beneficiaries, as well as details about your home, land, vehicles, bank accounts, investments, jewelry, artwork, and other possessions. Your Will also allows you to choose a personal guardian to care for your children if you should die when they are still minors. Your Will should be written carefully, correctly and in compliance with the laws of your state to be sure your beneficiaries will be taken care of when you are gone.

In order for your Will to be valid, and accepted by the court, it must be in writing, signed with your signature, and witnessed by at least two witnesses who are neither relatives nor beneficiaries. Otherwise, the court may not accept your Will, and it may be unenforceable. If your Will is found invalid, the court may distribute your assets as if there were no Will (or intestate), and the court will distribute your asset according to the Distribution Act 1958 (amended 1997) and it may take up to seven years for the whole process.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Margin of Safety

"A margin of safety is achieved when securities are purchased at prices sufficiently below underlying value to allow for human error, bad luck, or extreme volatility in a complex, unpredictable and rapidly changing world." Seth Klarman



By far the most effective behavioural finance strategy which is highly recommended by many investment gurus is value investing. The virtue of value investing is that investors buy at prices that are already low, so there isn’t much room for further down play. I would like to introduce to you our "Father of Value Investing" - Benjamin Graham.

Benjamin Graham
Benjamin Graham, born in 1894 witnessed the devastation of the 1929 crash and has since developed resilient techniques that could be used by any investor. He popularized the examination of price-earning (PE) ratios, debt-to-equity ratios, dividend records, net current assets, book values and earnings growth. That earned him the name of the “Father of Value Investing”. He brilliantly concocted the ‘Margin of Safety” theory that has gained tremendous support across the finance industry. Graham defined margin of safety as the margin at which a stock can be purchased with minimum downside risk.

There are many criteria for Graham’s margin of safety investment approach, the most stringent is this: Purchase the stock with price not more than two-thirds of Net Current Asset Value (NCAV).

How to calculate the NCAV?

Net Current Asset Valuation (NCAV) is computed by total current assets less total liabilities.

Example – Calculation for NCAV
RM’000
Cash at bank 200
Debtors 100
Inventory 100

Total Liabilities 200
# of shares 100

Share price 1.80

In the example, given that the total current assets are RM400,000 and total liabilities are RM200,000, the net current asset per share is RM2 which is lower than the current market price. However, it is still not good enough as according to Graham’s criteria, the purchase price must not be more than two-thirds of the NCAV which is RM1.33. Therefore, we will not purchase the stock.

The margin of safety for this case is 26% (the difference between current market price and the conservative calculation using Graham’s criteria) which is lower than the minimum margin of safety of 33%. Buying at steep discount using the margin of safety approach can help to cushion the negative surprises in the financial market.

The above theory looks nice in theory but it is not very practical in the modern world now. Using this method, I can't find any good bargain because most of the companies have more debt than their current assets. But this method does screen out those companies with solid cash position in their balance sheet. Perhaps, we can improvise the strategy a little, rather than 2/3 of NCAV, maybe we can multiply the NCAV by 2 or 3 times instead.

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong