Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Investment Lessons
Personal Money: "Personally, how did you learnt to be a better investor? What are the experiences that you went through (mistakes you made) that taught you the “better” ways?"
Pauline Yong: I had some rough rides before but I’m glad that I started young as those experiences help me to become a better investor now.
The first lesson that I learned was back in my high school. One of my school teachers was an ex-broker in stocks, so he liked to talk about shares in our class. Under his influence I bought the first stock under my relative’s account. I had no idea what the company was doing and I didn’t bother to find out either. Then I went to overseas for my education and when I came back the value became less than a third.
So lesson No.1: Never listen to rumours. We should do our due diligent.
Subsequently the 1997 Asian financial crisis was another great lesson in my life. It was in 1996 that I just graduated from university and I received RM10,000 from my father as a gift. As a young and eager finance graduate I opened a trading account and started investing.
I invested all my money into three counters, all construction related as they were enjoying the economic boom during the “Four Tigers Era”. And soon the Asian financial crisis struck, there goes my investment. At present, one of them was de-listed, one was sold at break-even and I’m still holding the third counter at paper loss.
Hence, lesson No.2: Never invest all your money at once. We should invest in stages; and
Lesson No.3: Never invest all the money in one sector. We should practice diversification.
After all those hiccups, I was not discouraged at all. In 1998, I kept buying and I have learned the most valuable lesson in the stock market.
Lesson No. 4: It’s a cycle – what goes down will come up; and what goes up will come down!
I bought Public Bank at RM1 and sold at RM3, I bought Public Bank again at RM2 and sold at RM4, I did that to other stocks too - “buy low, sell high”. This strategy works very well when the stock market is on an uptrend.
As I was getting “hooked” on the “buy low, sell high” game I discovered the next lesson:
Lesson No.5: Do not over-trade as it will turn us into highly emotional.
I realised I was very emotional, I suffered from heart palpitation and nervousness as I was always guessing the next move of the market. That was not investing, that was speculating! Emotional investing will turn us into a loser in the long run.
It all boils down of being a better person. That means that you should improve your attitude because it does reflect or influence your performance in share investing. Don’t be afraid of making mistakes, mistakes make us grow. What is more important is to foster a positive attitude which makes you decide things objectively and to control your negative emotions better.
Sunday, July 4, 2010
China - The Next Super Power?
In Goldman Sachs's 2007 update on the BRIC's report, by 2027 China will overtake US to be the world no. 1, if this is true will it surprise you?
For those who know the ancient China history, China was once a very powerful nation interms of military and prosperity during the beginning of the Qing dynasty, under the guidance of Kang Xi (reigned 1662-1722), Yong Zheng (reigned 1723-1735) and Qian Long (reigned 1736-1795) emperors.
The divergence between China and the western countries started during the 1800's where the European countries led by Britain were gaining power through the industrial revolution. Since then the divergence became bigger and bigger until 1978 when Deng Xiao Ping decided to open up its door to the world.
From 1978 - 2000, China's economy was rising due to its capitalism. Later when China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO), it's growth has been accelerated and now, China has become the world 3rd largest economy in terms of GDP (lagging behind USA and Japan).
All these boil down to a simple word - "Vision". In the 1950's they shared a vision with Russia to have their countries run in the communism way whereby they believe socialism and communism will benefit their people most. Indeed, they will able to eliminate the internal wars within their own country and bring peace. However the prices these communists have to pay were huge. As everything was state owned, there were lack of initiative, labour productivity was low and the people were having low levels of standard of living.
The death of Mao Tze Tung in 1976 signifies the end of communism in China. After Mao Tze Tung era, it was Deng Xiao Ping who had contributed China the most. Have you heard of the Deng's cat theory - "whether its a black cat or white cat, as long as the cat catches mice, its a good cat". So China has a vision, the vision of an "efficient" country which lead to prosperity in China now.
There is also a little story about Deng. In the 1990's he once said that Singapore was a role model for China. He admired Singapore, a country that is so rich and efficient and yet there are law and order in placed. So China developed its Guang Dong province to be like Singapore.
Another reason for China's success is education! They realised the main driver for economic growth is really its people - the human resource. Look at Singapore, its world class education sector has successfully transformed Singapore from a manufacturing based economy to high skill service based economy. Likewise, over the years, China's education sector has been developing steadily with primary school children equiped with computer knowledge.
Having look at how others become so successful, we should also look at ourselves. Why aren't the foreign investors coming to Malaysia? Not only the foreign talents not coming, the local talents are leaving, why? Our politicians should know the answers!
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
The China Renminbi (RMB)
Since 2005, China has been under tremendous pressure from the US to revalue its currency as the US blamed China for causing the US high current account deficit with cheap influx of the Chinese goods. Hence, in July 2005, the RMB was revalued to 8.11 per US dollar, which was a mere 2% increment (Prior to that the Yuan was pegged to the US dollar at 8.27 from 1997 to 2005). Since 2005 the Chinese yuan was unpegged and allowed to float within a narrow band of 0.3% - 0.5%. However, in 2008 due to the financial crisis around the world, the Chinese Central Bank has manipulated their yuan to the dollar of around 6.90. Until recently, the Central Bank of China has announced to further revalue their currency through a more flexible exchange rate policy, how 'flexible' we do not know as there was not much information given.
According to the Big Mac Index, Renminbi was undervalued for nearly 50%! Hence I really doubt the China is going to let its currency to reflect its true value, the most I would predict is another 5% appreciation, no more! Why? As it makes no sense for the Chinese yuan to be so strong for the following reasons:
1. Chinese Exports
According to BBC, Chinese exports value has reached US$1.2 trillion which make China to be probably the no.1 exporter in the world. They export mostly electrical goods, textiles, and many low-valued daily products like tooth brush and under garments. These products are the driver for the economic growth in China, for the past decade, it has recorded tremendous growth of 6% to 13%, it will soon overtake Japan to be the Asia largest economy.
2. Job opportunity
Due to the cheap goods demanded by the whole world including you and me, it has contributed to their income and employment, improved their standard of living, and most importantly the influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) into China.
3. Foreign Direct Investment

Since 1980, the FDI has been increasing by an exponential rate, which can be seen from the graph. In the beginning when China first open its door to the world, it was the Taiwanese and Hong Kong factories went over there to set up their operating plants. Later when China joined the World Trade Organisation WTO more capital from all over the world came to capitalise on the China's cheap labour. These valuable foreign direct investments and exports has turned China to be the second largest economy in Asia.
Value of Yuan
The value of a currency is usually reflected based on a country's economic performance, which is reflected on its Balance of Payment. Over the years, while many western countries like US and EU countries are experiencing deficits in their balance of payments, China has surpluses year after year. Hence, by right we should be seeing depreciation of those western countries currency (which is happening now) and an appreciation of the yuan. But yuan has been relatively constant at around 7-8 per US dollar over the years! Clearly, the yuan has been artificially kept low by their Central Bank.
So, what's the big deal? If it's not a big deal then why should US kept barking on the China to appreciate their currency?
Let me explain further. First when Chinese yuan suppose to reflect its true value but it didn't then we will continue to see China exports continue to sell at low price to its trading partners like US, make them keep buying the Chinese goods and worsen the US deficits further! Hence, if the yuan is stronger, the US will import less Chinese goods and thus their balance of payment shall improve.
The currency war between the US and China has been long, and it will continue to stay if the yuan continues to be undervalue against the greenback.
Happy investing,
Pauline Yong
Monday, March 22, 2010
British Pounds
There are many factors affecting the British pounds. The following are some of them:
1. Current account deficit
Since 1997, UK's current account has been in bad shape. Having a current account deficit means that the country is spending beyond their means, or they are importing more than what they are exporting. This will increase the supply of British pounds that subsequently reduce the value of the currency.
2. Fiscal policy
Over the years, the British government has been proposing a national budget that is bigger than before. The 2009 public spending on welfare and social security stood at 650 billion pounds which was equivalent to about 46% of the UK GDP. The unprecedented size of the UK budget deficit has in fact balked by many economists as that means more public debt to finance the budget deficit. As such, many believe that the sterling pounds will remain weak and it may eventually reach parity with the euro.
3. The Greece effect
As UK is located in the Euro zone not far from Greece who also has great appetite for debt. Many people suggested that UK will be the next Greece. However, that's not the case. Although UK is highly debt ridden with a debt of 60% of its GDP, but compare to Greece, this is much better as Greece's debt is recorded at 130% of its GDP!
Overall, the above are the economic reasons for the weak pounds, however there are other factors such as political scandals, the purchase of AIG by Prudential and so on that will definitely aggrevate the problem.
Anyway I told my students if the pounds really hit parity with the euro, I will convert all my savings into pounds... Just kidding!
Happy investing,
Pauline Yong
Friday, January 1, 2010
Think Like Warren Buffett
by Glenn Curtis
Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled "The Warren Buffett Portfolio". What's so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the "Oracle of Omaha" is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy.
Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.
1. Think of Stocks as a Business
Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns.
2. Increase the Size of Your Investment
While it rarely - if ever - makes sense for investors to "put all of their eggs in one basket," putting all your eggs in too many baskets may not be a good thing either. Buffett contends that over-diversification can hamper returns as much as a lack of diversification. That's why he doesn't invest in mutual funds. It's also why he prefers to make significant investments in just a handful of companies.
Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due deligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?
3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover
Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.
4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks
While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that.
5. Learn to Think in Probabilities
Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world. Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.
6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing
Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset.
7. Ignore Market Forecasts
There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value (through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.
8. Wait for the Fat Pitch
Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player. Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.
Hence, "The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.
Saturday, December 12, 2009
PUBLIC LECTURE by Dr Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Title: When will we ever learn? Has Malaysia learnt the correct lessons from past crises?
Date: Wednesday, 16 December 2009
Time: 7.30pm
Venue: Hotel Singgahsana, Persiaran Barat, off Jalan Sultan, 46760 Petaling Jaya (next to Taman Jaya LRT Station)
Admission: FREE
The world is still struggling to emerge from the longest and deepest financial crisis in six decades. For every piece of optimistic news about recovery there are stories of setbacks and worsening downturns. Asia has been here before. A decade ago, the Asian financial crisis swept across the region. It not only prompted some rethinking of how to 'manage' financial crises but also stimulated some serious rethinking about the character of the development model in Asia. Lessons were learnt and new policy and institutional frameworks were put into place. But the severity of the current crisis begs a question: did politicians and policymakers really learn the right lessons from ten years ago? This is the burning question that is addressed in Jomo's important public talk.
The Speaker
Jomo is one of the world's leading thinkers on questions of development -- not just development economics but also the policy commitments and institutional frameworks for international cooperation that are necessary to deliver both reform and sustainability. From his position at the United Nations he is able to shape debates and influence their outcomes. At the same time, he remains profoundly committed to building longstanding solutions to the most pressing problems that face the world today - environmental degradation and climate change, financial disorder and continuing uneven development. Come and listen to him offer important reflections on what has gone wrong and what might be done to advance a progressive agenda.