Sunday, March 13, 2011

Let It Fall, Let It Fall, Let It Fall!


Last Friday Japan Earthquake was an unexpected event, and this will definitely cause panic selling on the next trading day which is on Monday. Usually for an unexpected event like this our Bursa Malaysia will undergo a period of correction. I'll usually wait for three weeks before I'll go into the market for bargain hunting. Always remember, the stock market will undergo a cycle but on the long run, it will be on an uptrend. So my advice is stay calm, let the market fall for 2-3 weeks, before you go in again. Unless there is another unexpected event happen, things will be different. But for now, that should be my strategy!
Happy investing
Pauline Yong




























































Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Oil Price

Everyone is talking about the oil price as this is the crucial factor that determine the direction of the stock market now. So I asked a group of audience recently at what price they think the oil price will create a panic selling for stock investors. I told them to think carefully before giving the answer as this is a good way to train their “psychic power” in predicting the direction of the market. Many say around US$100 – US$140 should create havoc selling.

I asked them again: “So you think when the oil price is near the historical high of US$147, investors will get panic and cause the stock market crash?”

In fact, in my personal view, the oil price should reach US$200 and beyond before investors get jittered. Then the audience grasp in disbelieve – too high!

Let me explained further, according to the behavioural finance this phenomenon is known as the “anchoring effect” whereby people usually refer to one reference point and make judgment from there.

When the oil price is near historical high level, the market participants may not feel the shock because they have seen this price level before and it’s within their expectation. What usually cause a stock market crash is that things happened in an unexpected way, which is beyond people’s expectation!

So to me, the oil price must be significantly higher than the previous high level, in order to stir some emotional reactions from the market participants.

Moreover, whether the oil price will go higher largely depends on the development in the Middle East war. If we think the war will end in the near term, then the market will be bullish. However, if this event progress like the wild fire causing widespread of upheavals, then I think we should start to take profits now.

For now, my strategy is short term play. And remember to take some profit along the way because we want to minimize our risk exposure in an uncertain market.


Happy investing,
Pauline Yong

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Investment Talk Campus Tour

Hi,

I'll be organising Investment Talk Campus Tour with CIMB in March 2011. The details are as follows:

Date: 8th March 2011 (Tue)
Venue: HELP Institute University College
Time: 10:30am - 12:30pm

Date: 8th March 2011 (Tue)
Venue: Sunway University College
Time: 3:30pm - 5:00pm

See you guys there!

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Now You Can Subscribe To Pauline Yong’s Trading Strategies Through ChartNexus XPertTrader Charting Software.


In collaboration with ChartNexus, Pauline Yong has incorporated her unique trading strategies into ChartNexus XPertTrader charting software so that subscribers can apply the strategies to buy and sell blue chip stocks and other general stocks in Bursa Malaysia as well as other foreign stock markets.


Benefits of Subscribing the ChartNexus XPertTrader Charting Software


After subscribing ChartNexus, you can use Pauline Yong’s proven trading strategies – Sigma Wealth (SW) Blue Chip Buy Signal, SW Blue Chip Sell Signal to scan your watchlist, preferably the blue chip stocks list regularly for any buying or selling opportunities.


The SW Blue Chip Buy Signal is designed to scan for buying opportunities for blue chip stocks that are intended for medium term to long term hold, hence speculation is not encouraged here when applying this strategy. On the other hand, the SW Blue Chip Sell Signal is to scan for weaknesses in the market so that investors will not hold on to the losers in a severe downtrend.


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Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Prospect Theory

According to Tversky and Kahneman, the prospect theory explores how an individual behaves when face with a risky situation. This theory suggests that when we are presented with choices, we consider the effects of each option relative to our present circumstances. Will we gain or lose relative to our current status quo? Definitely, we prefer gains because it is always better to receive money than to lose it. Hence, Kahneman and Tversky’s crucial contribution was the recognition that losses and gains are not weighed equally - for the same amount of gains and losses, losses hurt more than gains.

Below is the diagram showing the difference between the human perception on gains and losses. As shown, gains and losses relative to the current status quo are measured on the horizontal axis, and the perceived value of these gains and losses is presented on the vertical axis. As indicated, losses produce a greater change in value than equal size gains: losses hurt more than gains.


Similarly, many investors will not sell anything at a loss, as investors feel more comfortable taking a profit on an investment than selling an under-performing stock at a loss. Investors are more likely to take comfort from paper loss than establishing a real loss. This common investor behaviour is due to the prospect theory of magnifying the effect on losses. Or sometimes, people have high hopes that the price of the stock will recover and often focus on returning to a neutral position before exiting. This ‘get even’ attitude has probably wrought more destruction on investment portfolios than bear markets.

Hence, the understanding of prospect theory is extremely useful for an investment manager in obtaining a clearer understanding of shareholders’ perceptions towards investment. It acknowledges that investors focus on gains and losses of individual investments and not on the overall picture. Emphasis is also given more to losses than to gains, to the extent that losses are more painful after prior losses and subsequently lead to a greater risk of further irrational decisions.

Happy investing,
Pauline Yong

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Overconfidence

Under the paradigm of traditional financial economics, decision makers are considered to be rational and utility maximizing. The assumption of rational expectations is simply an assumption - an assumption that could turn out not to be true.

Behavioural Finance has the potential to be a valuable supplement to the traditional financial theories in making investment decisions. For the past few weeks I have introduced several behavioural finance concepts including: Availability Bias, Representative Bias, Anchoring Bias, Mental Accounting and Framing Effect. Next, I’m going to tallk about “Overconfidence”.

Overconfidence is a very common behaviour whereby investors tend to think that they know more than they actually do. They often overestimate their predictive skills and believe they can time the market. One classic example is listening to rumours. Investors who make investment decisions based on listening to hearsay rumours tend to be overconfident about the situation. Personally, I know a lady who listen to rumours got lucky the first time, she invested RM100,000 in a particular stock based on rumours from her fund manager friend. Her RM100,000 later became RM300,000. The next time she became greedy and invested RM300,000 into another stock recommended by the same fund manager, however, there was bad news regarding the company’s product and her RM300,000 became RM100,000.

Hence, being overconfidence may bring us good fortune at times, but it may also cause losses in our portfolio. To overcome this mental bias we need to follow our investment plan, practice diversification and always remind ourselves not to fall prey to those mental biases.

Finally, wishing all a Happy Chinese New Year! May the year of Rabbit be a prosperous one for all stock investors.


Happy investing,
Pauline Yong

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Mental Accounting

Suppose you are going to a movie and as you enter the cinema, you discover that you have lost your movie ticket you’ve just paid RM10 for. Would you spend another RM10 to get a new one? If you are like most people, you would probably think twice because you will feel that you will end up paying RM20 for a movie actually worth RM10!

Now let’s construct the scenario differently. You are going to see a movie. On your way to the movie theatre you drop a RM10 note on the bus. You are disappointed, of course, but would this affect your decision to buy the movie ticket? You will probably say to yourself: “Damn it! That’s my luck!” Arriving at the cinema, you will forget about the incident and stand in line to get a movie ticket.

In fact, the above research was conducted by some psychologists who discovered that only 46 percent of those who lost a ticket were willing to buy a replacement ticket, whereas 88 percent of those who lost an equivalent amount of cash were willing to buy a ticket. Since the lost ticket and the lost cash had the same value, their loss should have been experienced in the same way, but why were there twice as many people willing to ignore the lost cash but not the lost ticket? Why is it that you feel more pain in losing the movie ticket than the ten-dollar note?

This is due to a psychological phenomenon proposed by the famous psychologist, Richard Thaler, known as mental accounting. It says that people tend to separate and categorise income and expenses into different accounts in their heads. For example, you might have an entertainment fund, an investment fund, an education fund for children and so on.

Losing a movie ticket and having to buy a second one takes RM20 out of your entertainment fund when you planned to take only RM10, so it’s “out of my budget”!

Many of us commit this mental mistake in our daily lives without realising it. For example, we treat the company bonuses, capital gains from selling stocks, dividends and tax refunds as a “windfall” source other than our normal source of income. We splurge on luxury items such as LV bags, Caribbean Cruise and Rolex watches with this “windfall” money in spite of having a housing loan and a car loan due for payments.

Somehow we have grouped our income and expenditure into separate mental “funds” or “budgets” that are not easily combined. Money received as part of our salary is treated differently from money received as a bonus. Similarly, money spent to buy a fixed asset is viewed differently from the same amount of money spent to treat ourselves to a dinner at a luxury restaurant.

From an economic perspective, these mental accounting rules violate the economic principle of “fungibility”, which means that all money is equal. A dollar is still a dollar whether you get it as a gift from a friend or from your salary. Hence, when the principle of fungibility is violated, people act in economically irrational ways.

Stock investors often apply mental accounting when making investment decisions. We have the tendency to treat capital gains as windfall money and indulge in luxury goods with the profits. Imagine how much money we can accumulate if we simply reinvest the money into various forms of investment and let our money grow for us.